Saturday, 26 November 2011

Maia's Election Live-blogging

1.31am Just an update on who is in and who is out.  I was right about the barrier for the Nats - Paul Quinn is out and Aaron Gilmore is in (although National may lose out on the specials).

However, Raymond Huo at number 21 on the list is in, but Carol Beaumont (number 22) is out.  This could change about depending on Christchurch Central and Waitakere though.

12.17am I think I might wind up this post and write some final thoughts in a new post.  I will find reasons to be cheerful.

12.14am OK I'm back - there was some very obnoxious dickheads driving past my house tooting really loudly at almost midnight.  It's a super obnoxious thing to do - and then on top of that a National party victory is a problematic thing to celebrate.

11.43pm I am talking a short break to drop some of Rabbit's friends and relations home.

11.35  By my count at the moment Aaron Gilmore is the last person in on National #53 on their list.  The last person in on Labour is Carol Beaumont at #34 - but that does depend on both Christchurch Central and Waitakere.  Everyone else you can just count down.

Does anyone have different ideas about the people?

11.31 I am finding the streams and cheering for John Key pretty repulsive.

11.25 Final votes in in Waitakere Paula Benett is leading by 349 votes.  That isn't looking solid and it'd be amazing if it was overturned in the specials.  I'll now try and do some final calculations around who exactly is in.

11.24pm Violence may break out at this election party because Tigger just said "Buffy is stupid."  I think we may conclude that we're not expecting any more news - good or bad.

11.23pm Now we've put it on mute, as John Key may be speaking soon.

11.14pm  The sign is for very low turn-out.  I think this is important, because this is a sign of disappointment with parliamentary politics.  National's vote is only actually around 35% of eligible voters.  It doesn't help the make-up of parliament, but I find it less depressing.

11.09pm Ugh - according to the comments Chris Trotter is saying that the reason Labour did badly because they weren't manly about.  As if the wall to wall blokes on the TV coverage wasn't bad enough.

11.01 CHRISTCHURCH CENTRAL IS A TIE! 10,493 votes each for Brendon Burns and Nicky Wagner - this is on 100% vote counted.  Now it's up to specials.

10.59pm There's conflicting advice about where the Labour line is and whether Carol Beaumont is in or not.  I think she is, but it does depend on Brendon Burns and Carmel Sepoluni.

10.58pm Phil Goff's family wanted him to stand down a decade or more ago - so would I.

10.57pm As Tigger pointed out, ACT is currently the 1%.

Mana is on .98% just two decimal points off the 99%.

10.51pm Don Brash resigned.  Tigger says "Apparently we should have listened to Don Brash - first time I've ever said that."

Him not being in parliament is one of the few non-awful things tonight.

10.45pm TVOne cut away with the Mark Sainsbury Walrus saying "Look it's John Key" and then "Oh no it's an empty car".  We looked at the empty car and then we came back.

10.42pm Now we are discussing Christchurch Central where Brendon Burns is up by  12 votes.  Owl says "I'm not saying I want Brendon Burns to win, but I definitely want Nicky Wagner to lose."

10.39pm Owl is claiming that we should be happy because National is looking to get under 48% - and that this is a miracle compared to the previous three years of polls.

I am sceptical.  NZ First being in is hardly a font of joy.

10.34pm Don Brash has quite amazing lighting with the powerpoint on his face.

One of Roo's friends voted for Labour, because they voted National last time and they like to alternate.

10.32pm Don Brash is on screen, but won't be in parliament.  Another small mercies.

Things aren't looking as good as Waitakere - which I think means Carol Beaumont will be in.

10.26pm OK abortion update.  The 8 NZ First MPs are pretty bad news for abortion (presumably). Currently depending on whether Carmel Sepuloni wins Waitakere either her or Carol Beaumont will be in.  It'd be good to have an extra seat for Labour when it comes to abortion politics.  There's no chance of Steve Chadwick or Kate Sutton getting in.

National are currrently not bringing in Paul Foster Bell, but Jacqui Blue is in.

10.22pm We have some insightful political analysis from an 8 or 9 year old friend of Eyeore's who said that National's policies were "the rich deserve more when the rich already have heaps of money and they should just give it to charities or poor people and labour aren't really any better either".

10.12pm New Plymouth has a final count.  Jonathan Fletcher is 4,130 above Andrew Little.  This doesn't really affect parliament, but it is sad for another friend of mine.  She has been campaigning for Andrew Little because Jonathan Fletcher is a pray the gay away level homophobe.

10.08pm As Anita points out Paul Quinn might be out - which is good news for democracy  since he disenfranchised people in prison..  National party and swinging between 60 and 61 MPs - as long as they settle on 61 Quinn is out.  That means Paul Foster-Bell also won't get in.

I should have credited Eeyore for the observation about James and Mojo.  Roo said something wise and pertinent.

10.06pm John Banks is praising Paul Holmes as the Great Optimist of the Fourth Estate - because Holmes called Banks's win.  Optimism and right-wing are not synonymous.

10.03pm I hate Russel Norman.

10.00pm So far turn-out is kind of low 68.25% based on the polling booths counted so far.  This lessens the mandate of the almost 50% of people voting National.

9.52pm The Greens are on 10.5% and 13 seats.  This is actually perfect.  They'll go up a seat in the specials and Mojo Mathers will come in - but there's no danger of James Shaw coming in.

9.50pm Carmel Sepoluni is back ahead in Waitakere.  That may be a meaningless good news, but I'll take it.

Kelly Buchanan now has 23 votes - so that's something.

9.49pm We are currently directing our rage towards the Green party and Gareth Hughes for bringing in Peter Dunne. And if Left-wing people voted tactically in Epsom John Banks wouldn't be in.

9.43pm It seems like ACT and UnitedFuture are in in Epsom and Ohariu - that's depressing.

The new person wants to be called Roo - she brings our number of Green voters to 2.

9.39pm I can't believe NZ First is back.  At 6.8 surely they're in? This is terrible for abortion politics.

National is now under 49%.  Small mercies.

9.33pm Bloke-bloke-bloke-bloke-bloke-bloke-bloke - the television coverage is awful.

9.32pm Google says he does vote and it will.

9.31pm We're arguing about whether or not the speaker votes and whether 61/121 will be a working majority.

9.27pm We're collecting good news - MMP is looking good and Kelly Buchanan now has 10 votes - which is some nice drinking for my friend.

9.25pm Paula Bennett is now ahead by 291.  Clearly the election Gods don't want me to have any joy.

9.20pm  We are now discussing Roger Sowry - who is on TV1.  Tigger doesn't understand why we're not being mean to him the way we're being mean to most commentators.  Then Eeyroe claimed that he used to be leader of the National Party but no-one knows who he is.  I corrected him, because I have protested outside Sowry's electorate office.

9.18pm NZ First is not going down! Neither ACT nor Mana are looking like getting another seat.  There are few joys tonight.

9.16pm National is almost down under 49% - hopefully the drop has begun.

We've had a new person join our watching party.  She said "Oh God Labour are doing really badly I need alcohol."

9.13pm Gerry Brownlee is on TVOne and now I'm officially wondering if we could change to TV3.  We are now holding out hope for 10pm where things start to get less depressing.

Eeyore is giving us really bad maths on Ohariu and whether Peter Dunne's lead is really Gareth Hughes's fault.

9.09pm Carmel Sepuloni is now 87 votes ahead of Paula Bennett. I may just focus on that - because everything else is badness.

9.05pm  More from the "apparently we have nothing to think about but John Key's food" John Key is collecting Pizza.

8.59pm Hone did a pretty awesome speech about class and fighting for working-class issues.

8.57pm Anita has an interesting point in the comments - it's possible that there are quite a few people enrolled in Christchurch who are voting somewhere else, which would swim back to Labour.  The thing about Christchurch is that no-one really knows.

8.50pm As Owl said - it looks like the Horizon poll was a little out.  We both answered the Horizon Poll regularly, as university students we are always looking for things to procrastinate on.

Also National is back below 50% - small mercies.

8.47pm  We are now discussing how we voted.  1 Maori party, 1 Green party, 4 Mana, and one wrote "Boo! Hiss! on the paper.

TVOne now has David Farrer as well as John Pagani. Why don't we get MaoriTV?

8.43pm TVOne is now outside Phil Goff's house. This is almost as bad as John Key's breakfast.

8.36pm Kris Faafoi is only 24 votes ahead in Mana - should I take credit?

Now John Pagani is on TVOne! Are they trying to drive us to the arms of Paul Henry?

Tigger is complaining that this is the most hateful group of television watching people ever.  Piglet says that maybe given the level of hatred Winnie The Pooh wasn't necessarily the most appropriate naming pool.

8.22pm  Christchurch appears to be going right.  Both Waimakariri and Christchurch Central have National party candidates ahead at this point.

I wonder if this is about people in Christchurch changing their views or (more likely in my opinion) working-class people no longer being able to live in those areas.

8.16pm  So it seems money can buy you votes.  The Conservative Vote is 2.4%, while Colin Craig is second in Rodney only 218 behind Mark Mitchell.

However, Eeyore has discovered that google have a special tool that allows you to block all search results from Stuff.  This sounds like the daily mail ap which substitutes all website on with pictures of kittens.

8.05pm NZFirst is still over 5% and Damien O'Connor is now ahead in West Coast Tasman.  Will there be no good news tonight?

I have taken bets on all the worst outcomes.  I get chocolate if Damien O'Connor wins and gummi bears if Peter Dunne and John Banks win.

7.59pm  As I mentioned my friend is the partner of Kelly Buchanan who is running for the Alliance in Wellington Central.  She is taking a shot for every vote her partner gets - so far she has only had a safe 6 votes.  I will keep you updated on the alcohol abuse throughout the night.

7.53pm TVOne is giving us a blow by blow account of John Key's day - which we could have done without.  As Owl said (everyone is named after Winnie the Pooh) - is it a really a revelation that he started the day with breakfast?

And in special news Willie Jackson TV1 so every channel has their Clint Rickards apologist.

7.46pm Carmel Sepoluni is ahead of Paula Bennet in Waitakere! Only by 39 votes - but that'd be OKper cent  7.7% of the vote counted.  Harawira is now ahead in Te Tai Tokerau.

TV one is showing that horrible late night add about chafing - with animated body parts supposed to be free from chafing.

7.31pm Bad news for electorate results: John Banks is now ahead in Epsom by 2,157 to 1,756.

Ohariu: Charles Chauvel 1,399 - Peter Dunne 1,591.  Gareth Hughes has 216 votes - and so I'm blaming him.

Also Rino Tirikatene is ahead of Rahui Katene in Te Tai Tonga - I don't know what I want to happen in that seat.

Chipkins is still looking OK in Rimutaka.

My flatmate who is in the room is reading my liveblogging - which is quite sad.  We are arguing about tactical voting.

7.28pm  Now National are under 50% on the party vote - given how depressing things are looking - that is about as good as we can hope. And if their vote continues to go down over the night that's not a total disaster

We'd had enough with endless male talking heads with Petra Bagust doing hte fluffy stories.  But we don't get Maori TV - so TV1 it'll have to me.  Unless at least 50% of TV3 commentators spontaneously combust we're sticking with TV1 tonight.

MMP is 10% up.  I think I'm going to be looking on the bright side.

7.21pm  This isn't going as well for National as it could - they do well with those who come in early.  So they may not be able to govern alone.  However, it's also obviously not doing particularly well for Labour. Minor parties are pretty depressing.

I'll just repeat

7.20pm Electorate updates - here's the first news from electorates that I'm interested

Epsom - John Banks is behind but they've only counted 407 votes so while fun it means nothing
West Coast Tasman -  Damien O'Connor is almost 100 votes behind Chris Auchinvole (only 636 votes counted) - I want some good news tonight so we may pay a lot of attention to this.
 Ohariu - Charles Chavel on 130 and Peter Dunne on 134.
Rimutaka - 2,151 to Chris Hipkins and 1,613 to Jonathan Fletcher - which is good news for abortion rights.

7.08pm I'm not impressed with TVOne so far.  Way too many people and most of them are boring.   Although MMP is streaking ahead.

7.06pm First lot of votes on the referendum MMP is 3% ahead - good news - but I'd like it to be more.

7.00pm Welcome to Maia's home of grumpy election watching.  Unlike the other live-bloggers I'm just at my house with some friends and relations.  Collectively they'll be called "Rabbit's friends and relations."

The first decision for the evening is which channel we're going to watch.  This has been made easier because TV3's commentators include Paul Henry, Rodney Hide, John Tamihere and Chris Trotter.   Obviously their goal is to repel all women and men who have heard of feminism.

So I think we'll be flicking between Maori TV (who do have Ron Mark, Mike King and Derek Fox so we may not stay for long) and TV1.

We also have chocolate and gummi bears - for the sole purpose of taking bets. I'm going to try and take bets only on the most depressing outcomes - so if the worst comes to the worst I will have snacks.


Anita said...

I am wondering about Christchurch....

If the people who moved away stayed on the roll at their Christchurch address then they'll likely be special votes and counted later. This would mean a swing back toward Labour in the Chch specials if your analysis is correct.

Anonymous said...

I think there probably are quite few special votes from CHCH central that will be special votes, especially considering how working class some suburbs are there. There are quite a few higher incomes in the north that were comparatively unaffected by the quake, so that could explain part of the results. Also, did I win the bet? I'll be expecting an ice-block...

Anita said...

4 more votes for Kelly Buchanan, is her partner's increasing drunkness worth a small amount of celebration?

Kim McBreen said...

If there's one thing that's clear from the tv coverage, it's that we need men to explain this election to us--are there any women on any tv panels? Clearly the ladies don't understand the important politics.

Anita said...

Paul Quinn is out - he won't get a list place on current numbers - that's worth a small celebration.

Anonymous said...

Didn't bother with TV, now giving up on online stuff. Thanks for the commentary, Keith Ng's e-geekery on scoop was fun till suspense turned to disappointed cursing re: Ohariu and Epsom and well everything.

- John A

Anita said...

My count says no Carol Beaumont at present. The electoral commission say on current voting Labour gets 11 list MPs, and I reckon the list places go like this:

1 PARKER, David
2 STREET, Maryan
4 CHAUVEL, Charles
5 ARDERN, Jacinda
6 LITTLE, Andrew
7 JONES, Shane
8 FENTON, Darien
9 MACKEY, Moana
10 PRASAD, Rajen
11 HUO, Raymond
12 BEAUMONT, Carol
13 DAVIS, Kelvin
14 SEPULONI, Carmel

I hope I am wrong

Anonymous said...

Just saying:

Incandenscent right now at Chris bloody Trotter's pathetic rant blaming Labour's defeat on it not being masculine enough. Not enough real blokes, too much pandering to women and non-pakeha etc. etc. And then finally after all that it was Helen Clark's fault too.

It's identity politics, and his identity group - white, straight middle-aged middle class, Pakeha men is the only one that matters, and everything would be fine if we all just went back to the kitchen and left the white, het men to rule, as they were born to do.


Carol said...

Actually, while I thought Labour ran a pretty good campaign, I thought it's sidelining of women and non white people was a weakness in their opening and closing vids. They clearly were trying to target white men.

The closing video on Friday was startlingly male-dominated. It left me wondering if they alienated a lot of women voters who would have usually voted for them.

Acid Queen said...

"I think there probably are quite few special votes from CHCH central that will be special votes"

Bold prediction